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The Fourth Turning: Why America Is Falling Apart — and What Comes Next

  • Writer: Jason Abt
    Jason Abt
  • Apr 26
  • 5 min read

Updated: May 6

The Fourth Turning is here. The collapse is real. What we do next decides everything.

A solitary figure gazes at a tattered American flag, reflecting the turmoil and challenges facing the nation's institutions amidst a deepening crisis.

You don’t need a Ph.D. in history to know something’s seriously wrong with the world right now.

You can feel it.

You can see it.

You can smell the rot in the system every time you turn on the news.


But what most people don’t realize is this:

It’s not just “bad leadership.

”It’s not just “a rough patch.

”It’s not even just corruption or greed, though those things are everywhere.


What we’re living through right now is part of a much bigger pattern.

A cycle.

One that's been playing out over and over again in American history — and human history, too.


It’s called The Fourth Turning.

And if you understand it, you’ll understand exactly where we are — and why the next few years are going to be some of the most dangerous, important years of our lives.


What Is the Fourth Turning?

Back in the late ‘90s, two historians — William Strauss and Neil Howe — published a book called The Fourth Turning.

They weren’t conspiracy theorists. They weren’t doom-and-gloom preppers.

They were just guys who studied the patterns of history — and realized that societies don’t move in straight lines. They move in seasons.


According to their research, every 80 to 100 years, America goes through a full cycle made up of four distinct periods — called Turnings.


Each Turning lasts roughly 20–25 years, the length of a generation. Each Turning has its own mood, its own spirit, its own dominant challenges.


Here’s the basic idea:

  • First Turning — The High: After a major crisis, society comes together. There's optimism, strong institutions, national pride. People trust authority. Think 1946–1964: post-WWII America, booming economy, white picket fences.

  • Second Turning — The Awakening: New generations grow restless. They start questioning the old ways. Religion, culture, authority — it all gets challenged. Think 1964–1984: the counterculture, civil rights movements, the rise of individualism.

  • Third Turning — The Unraveling: Trust in institutions collapses. Society fragments. People become more cynical, divided, self-focused. Think 1984–2008: political scandals, culture wars, skyrocketing debt, the loss of any real sense of unity.

  • Fourth Turning — The Crisis: Everything breaks down. Political systems fail. Economies crash. Wars start. Old institutions either die or are completely rebuilt. Think the American Revolution, the Civil War, the Great Depression/WWII.


And here’s the kicker:

Each Fourth Turning is brutal.

Each Fourth Turning reshapes the entire world.

It doesn’t just tweak the system — it burns it down and forces people to build something new from the ashes.


Welcome to the Fourth Turning

Right now, we’re deep into the Fourth Turning.


Some people say it started with 9/11. Others point to the 2008 financial crash. Some argue it really started to pick up steam in 2020 with COVID, the riots, and the total loss of trust in government, media, science, and elections.


Honestly, it doesn't matter exactly when it started.

We’re in it.


Look around:

  • Trust is dead. Nobody believes the media. Nobody trusts the government. Even churches are being torn apart by scandals and political divides.

  • Chaos is normal. Riots, lockdowns, economic freefall, open borders, record-breaking crime — it’s not just isolated events anymore. It’s the atmosphere we breathe.

  • Division is weaponized. Race, gender, politics, class — every line that can divide people is being inflamed on purpose.

  • Corruption is obvious. They don’t even try to hide it anymore. They rub it in your face and dare you to do something about it.


That’s textbook Fourth Turning.

The old world is dying. The systems built after WWII — the political order, the financial order, the global alliances — are all crumbling right in front of us.


And it’s not going to magically fix itself.


The Pain Before the Rebirth

Here’s what people don’t like to hear:

It’s going to get worse before it gets better.

Every Fourth Turning involves a massive conflict — a war, a revolution, an economic collapse.

Sometimes all three at once.


It happened with the American Revolution in the late 1700s.

It happened with the Civil War in the 1860s.

It happened with the Great Depression and World War II in the 1930s and 40s.


We’re overdue.

And if history holds true, the next 5 to 10 years will be some of the hardest years America has ever faced.


But — and this is crucial — that doesn't mean it's hopeless.


Fourth Turnings are times of destruction and rebirth.


When the fire burns out, what rises from the ashes depends on the courage, faith, and strength of the people left standing.


The Fork in the Road

The outcome of this Fourth Turning isn't written in stone. We still have a choice.

We can emerge as a stronger, freer, more faithful nation — or we can collapse into tyranny, division, and permanent decay.


It depends on what we do now.

It depends on whether enough people:

  • Turn back to God instead of trusting in corrupt human institutions.

  • Build strong families that can weather the storm.

  • Get serious about their communities — local, real-world connections, not fake online activism.

  • Prepare mentally, spiritually, and physically for hard times.

  • Refuse to bow to fear, propaganda, and emotional manipulation.


n every Fourth Turning, there are heroes — people who stand firm while everything around them falls apart.


But there are also traitors, cowards, and tyrants.

History is being written right now — by people like you and me.

Which side are you going to stand on?


Faith, Family, and Freedom

If there's one thing I know, it's this: You can't get through a Fourth Turning alone.

You need faith — the kind that’s rooted deep, the kind that doesn’t get blown over when the winds of fear start howling.

You need family — real family, not just blood relatives, but a band of brothers and sisters who’ll have your back when the world gets uglier.

You need freedom — not the fake, government-approved "freedom" they peddle on TV, but real freedom. The kind you fight for. The kind you live and bleed for if you have to.

And you need to be willing to suffer a little.

To endure.

To build something better — even if you don't get to see the final results yourself.


That’s how previous generations survived their Fourth Turnings. That’s how civilizations endure.

And that's the challenge we’ve been handed.

We didn’t ask for this. We were born into it.

But maybe — just maybe — that means we were born for such a time as this.

I’d love to hear your take — how do you see the Fourth Turning shaping our future? Let's talk about it.

 
 
 

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